"This is not a solution, this is a cowardly hiding of the head in the sand. It has long been clear to everyone that it is not the excess of tenge that is putting pressure on inflation, but the lack of domestic production of goods, the natural consequence of which is the import dependence of the domestic market. And against the backdrop of the strengthening dollar, or rather the falling into the abyss of the Russian ruble exchange rate, which shifts the burden of trade restrictions to Kazakhstan (due to the conversion of the ruble into tenge and the purchase of dollars in Kazakhstan), inflation is now also being put under pressure by the further devaluation of the tenge, which will continue until the ruble, which has collapsed under sanctions, also buries our economy under itself,” Peruashev wrote on his Telegram channel.
In his opinion, “possible solutions: abandon the ruble/tenge conversion (but this is impossible for both economic and political reasons); or stimulate domestic production, filling the domestic market with domestic goods.”
“But this is not a quick task, besides, with such a base rate, loans to businesses will still cost around 20%. And it is impossible to develop production at such interest rates. And the subsidies of the Damu fund (which cover the difference in the cost of loans up to 7-9%) will not save the situation, since they go to 1% of business entities and do not actually affect the structure of the economy. A sharp and bold reduction of the National Bank's base rate would be much more effective in this situation. But the National Bank is not thinking about the economy, but is looking for a reason not to make any decisions at all," Peruashev concluded.
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